Global sugar production in 2024/25 to reach record highs, driven by increased production in the EU, Thailand and India; global production surplus in 2024/25 to be highest since 2017/18
2024/25 is clear at a glance...
Global sugar production
We forecast global sugar production to reach 189.7 million tonnes in 2024/25, up 3.2 million tonnes from our previous estimate. https://app.czapp.com/auth/analyst-insights/6510 This will exceed the historical peak of the 2017/18 harvest.
The increase in production in 2024/25 may come as a surprise. After all, most reports are about dry weather and worse-than-expected cane performance in the world’s largest sugar producing region – Southern Brazil. But we believe that the cane area in Brazil is much higher than other observers believe, so sugar production is unlikely to fall significantly this season. If the weather remains dry, next season (25/26 harvest) could be negatively impacted.
Elsewhere, we expect production to remain strong in India and other small sugar producing regions in Central America.
Global Sugar Consumption
As the population increases, so does global sugar consumption. We believe it will exceed 180 million tonnes in the 2024/25 crushing season.
High production surplus in 2024/25
Recovery in sugar production in the EU and Thailand and increased production capacity in India could lead to the largest surplus since 2017/18 at 8.8 million tonnes.
