First, looking at historical data, the outcome of the US presidential election has a significant impact on gold prices. In the analysis, ING reviewed the major events that affected gold's performance during the US presidential term from 1989 to 2024 and found that during periods of increased geopolitical risk, gold tends to exhibit the characteristics of a safe haven asset, and its price has increased accordingly. For example, under Trump, gold prices rose by 55%, and under Biden, gold prices rose by 45% as of October 30, 2023.
In the 2024 US election, the competition between Trump and Harris is very intense, which not only creates uncertainty in the global political landscape, but also exacerbates financial market volatility. ING predicts that gold is likely to perform well regardless of the election result, as geopolitical risks remain high in the short term. However, the different policy proposals of Trump and Harris may have different impacts on gold prices in the medium to long term.
In addition, the election result may also affect the trend of the US dollar exchange rate, and there is a close negative relationship between the US dollar exchange rate and the gold price. If the policies of the elected candidate are conducive to a stronger US dollar, gold prices may be suppressed. Conversely, if the US dollar exchange rate weakens, gold prices may increase.
